يو ايس جي سفر ۽ سياحت واري صنعت تي اثر جو تجزيو ڪيو ويو: COVID-19 لاءِ معاوضو ڪيئن؟

Today US President Trump said that the cost of shutting down US travel and tourism industry (hotels, restaurants, airlines) is about 30 billion dollars a month, and the government is preparing to compensate for the loss. The president pointed out that it’s not the fault of a hotel or restaurant owner, that the guests are no longer showing up. “The government stopped it”, President Trump noted.

A new analysis released Tuesday by the U.S. Travel Association projects that decreased travel due to coronavirus will inflict an $809 billion total hit on the U.S. economy and eliminate 4.6 million travel-related American jobs this year. Earnings in March and April will be 75% below normal.

The dire impact numbers, prepared for the U.S. Travel Association by Tourism Economics, were presented by U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Roger Dow at a Tuesday White House meeting with President Trump, Vice President Pence, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and other travel leaders.

”صحت جي بحران صحيح طور تي عوام ۽ حڪومت جي توجه تي قبضو ڪيو آهي، پر ملازمن ۽ ملازمن لاءِ نتيجي ۾ تباهي اڳ ۾ ئي هتي آهي ۽ وڌيڪ خراب ٿيڻ واري آهي،“ ڊاءِ اڱارو چيو. "سفر سان لاڳاپيل ڪاروبار 15.8 ملين آمريڪن کي ملازمت ڏين ٿا، ۽ جيڪڏهن اهي پنهنجون روشنيون رکڻ جي متحمل نه ٿي سگهن، اهي پنهنجن ملازمن کي ادا ڪرڻ جي متحمل نٿا ڪري سگهن. جارحاڻي ۽ فوري آفت جي امدادي قدمن کان سواءِ، بحالي وارو مرحلو تمام گهڻو ڊگهو ۽ وڌيڪ ڏکيو ٿيڻ وارو آهي، ۽ معاشي ڏاڪڻ جا هيٺيان حصا ان کي بدترين محسوس ڪرڻ وارا آهن.

ڊو نوٽ ڪيو ته 83٪ سفري ملازمت وارا ننڍا ڪاروبار آهن.

سفر جي اثر جي تجزيي ۾ ٻيا قابل ذڪر نتيجا:

• Total spending on travel in the U.S.— transportation, lodging, retail, attractions and restaurants—is projected to plunge by $355 billion for the year, or 31%. That is more than six times the impact of 9/11.
• اڪيلي سفري صنعت پاران تخميني نقصان آمريڪا کي ڊگھي کساد بازاري ۾ ڌڪڻ لاءِ ڪافي سخت آهن- توقع آهي ته گهٽ ۾ گهٽ ٽن چوٿين تائين، Q2 2020 سان گهٽ پوائنٽ هجڻ سان.
• پروجيڪٽ ڪيل 4.6 ملين سفر سان لاڳاپيل نوڪريون گم ٿي وينديون، پاڻ طرفان، تقريباً ٻه ڀيرا آمريڪي بيروزگاري جي شرح (3.5٪ کان 6.3٪).

"اها صورتحال مڪمل طور تي بي مثال آهي،" ڊو چيو. "معيشت جي ڊگهي مدت جي صحت جي خاطر، نوڪررن ۽ ملازمن کي هاڻي هن آفت مان رليف جي ضرورت آهي جيڪا حالتن جي ڪري پيدا ڪئي وئي هئي مڪمل طور تي انهن جي ڪنٽرول کان ٻاهر."

اڱاري تي وائيٽ هائوس جي اجلاس ۾، ڊاؤ انتظاميه تي زور ڏنو ته 150 بلين ڊالر تي غور ڪيو وڃي مجموعي رليف ۾ وسيع سفر واري شعبي لاء. تجويز ڪيل ميڪانيزم جي وچ ۾:

• هڪ سفري افرادي قوت اسٽيبلائيزيشن فنڊ قائم ڪريو
• سفري ڪاروبار لاءِ ايمرجنسي ليولٽيٽي جي سهولت فراهم ڪريو
• SBA قرض پروگرامن کي بهتر ۽ تبديل ڪريو ننڍن ڪاروبارن ۽ انهن جي ملازمن کي سپورٽ ڪرڻ لاءِ.

Oxford Economics, in coordination with its Tourism Economics subsidiary company, modeled the expected downturns in the US travel industry in 2020 as a result of Coronavirus. We then modeled the economic impacts of these travel industry losses in terms of GDP, unemployment, and taxes.

Travel Industry Losses A decline of 31% for the entire year is expected.

This includes a 75% drop in revenue over the next two months and continued losses over the rest of the year reaching $355 billion. GDP Losses Travel industry losses will result in a cumulative GDP impact of $450 billion in 2020.

We project the US economy to enter a protracted recession based on the expected downturn in travel alone. The recession is likely to last at least three quarters with the lowest point in the second quarter of 2020. Tax Losses A decline of $55 billion in taxes will be realized as a result of travel declines in 2020.

Employment Losses The US economy is projected to lose 4.6 million jobs as a result of travel declines in 2020. The unemployment rate of 3.5% in February will rise substantially in the coming months. Travel-related employment losses alone will push the unemployment rate up to 6.3% over the next few months.

The Time Opportunity The greatest opportunity to mitigate these losses is to reduce the time required for a recovery.

While typical recovery times from a disease related crisis range from 12-16 months, this can be shortened through strategic promotions and support of the travel industry. We analyzed two scenarios for shortening the duration of losses.

SCENARIO 1: FULL RECOVERY BEGINS IN JUNE Scenario assumes full recovery is achieved in June.

Each month from June-December offers a potential average gain of $17.8 billion in GDP and $2.2 billion in taxes. Total benefits would tally $100 billion in travel industry revenue, $15 billion in taxes, and 1.6 million jobs restored. SCENARIO 2: 50% RECOVERY BEGINS IN JUNE Scenario assumes that recovery is accelerated by 50% (relative to expected performance) beginning in June. In this scenario, each month offers a potential gain of $8.9 billion in GDP and $1.1 billion in taxes.

Total benefits would tally $50 billion in travel industry revenue, $7.7 billion in taxes, and 823,000 jobs restored